Apprenticeships and 19-plus Further Education Skills Index, Academic year 2022/23 (2024)

This is the latest data

Measuring the impact of Apprenticeships and 19-plus Further Education on productivity

Productivity is how much we produce with the resources we have available. Though the rate of productivity growth is influenced by a number of factors, a country’s skills level is a major component. Giving people valuable knowledge, skills and behaviours boosts their productivity.

The Index takes the increases in earnings attributable to different types of apprenticeships and 19-plus FE training and aggregates these to estimate a measure of total value-added from the system over time. This provides a proxy measure for the productivity impact of apprenticeships and 19-plus FE, based on the assumption that in a well-functioning labour market an individual’s earnings reflect their productivity. This approach is well-established in academia and public policy analysis - see, for example, Becker (1975) and Mincer (1974), and HMT (2018), The Green Book.

Using the Apprenticeships and 19-plus Further Education Skills Index

The Index reports on the value of funded adult (19-plus) Further Education achievements and all apprenticeship achievements. Skills Bootcamp achievements are not incorporated due to it being too early to derive estimates of economic returns which are comparable with those for other provision used in this publication, neither are Multiply achievements with no level assigned.

The full approach is set out in the Apprenticeships and 19-plus Further Education Skills Index Methodology but the Index is essentially measured as the change in value-added over time.

Value-added = Apprenticeships and 19-plus FE achievers * employment rate for achievers in that qualification * estimated additional earnings from achieving the qualification

The Index method holds both the employment rate and estimated additional earnings constant, so an increase (or decrease) in the Index would be caused by one or more of:

1. An increase (decrease) in the number of learners;
2. An increase (decrease) in achievement rates;
3. A shift towards (away from) more economically valuable training, through more (less) learning being undertaken in qualifications with higher additional earnings.

The Index is not intended to be:

• A full assessment of the total value generated by the FE system.
• A full assessment of the productivity impact over a learner’s lifespan.
• A timely measure for evaluating specific policy changes.
• A method for tracking changes in the quality of qualifications delivered - the Skills Index monitors changes in the provision mix, i.e. the distribution of qualifications by level and subject.

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In 2022/23 the Apprenticeships and 19-plus Further Education Skills Index stood at 54.6, which is 10% higher than in 2021/22 and the highest level since 2018/19.

• This increase was driven by a 7% rise in the number of achievers and the fact that these achievements were occurring in a more economically valuable mix of provision types, levels, and subjects than before - the average value-added per learner increased by 3%.

In 2022/23 the Apprenticeships and 19-plus Further Education Skills Index was 45% lower than in 2012/13.

• The long-term decline has mainly been driven by a decline in numbers of achievers, which were 50% lower than in 2012/13.
• The Index has fallen more slowly than achiever numbers due to an increase of 10% in average value-added per learner since 2012/13 - again, indicating an underlying shift over the period towards a more economically valuable mix of provision types, levels, and subjects.

The changes in the Apprenticeships and 19-plus Further Education Skills Index overall have been a result of varying trends in the underlying classroom-based and apprenticeships elements.

Value-added of apprenticeships

• The Index for apprenticeships increased by 19% in 2022/23 and is now above the 2018/19 (pre-COVID-19) level. This was mostly due to increases in the volume of more economically valuable higher apprenticeship achievements, which contributed 23% of the overall total value-added in 2022/23.
• In 2022/23 the value-added for apprenticeships was 8% lower than in 2012/13. It had increased every year from 2012/13 up to 2017/18, before falling following reforms to the apprenticeship system introduced from 2016/17.

Value-added of classroom-based training

• The total value-added for classroom-based training increased slightly by 1% in 2022/23, having fallen by 9% the previous year. It has generally been falling each year and is now 65% lower than 2012/13.

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The Value-added per learner index shows the impact of changes in the provision mix on the average (mean) value-added per learner.

In 2022/23 the average value-added per learner increased by 3%.

• This has been driven by a small increase in the apprenticeships value-added per learner outweighing the fall in classroom-based value-added per learner (due to the fact that apprenticeships have a larger average value-added per learner than classroom-based provision).

The average value-added per learner is 10% higher than in 2012/13.

• This shows that, across apprenticeships and 19-plus FE as a whole, since 2012/13 there has been an underlying shift towards a more valuable mix of provision types, levels and subjects.
• This shift has partly offset the impact of the long term decline in achievements on total value-added.

Since 2012/13, the provision mix has become more valuable for apprenticeships. In contrast it has become less valuable for classroom-based training.

Value-added per apprenticeship

Value-added per apprenticeship learner increased very slightly (by less than 1%) in 2022/23. This measure has increased in every year and is now 44% than in 2012/13.

• This is partly due to a shift from intermediate towards higher level apprenticeships, which have higher earnings returns.
• There has also been a shift over time towards apprenticeships in sector subject areas with higher earnings returns – towards engineering and construction and away from retail, business and leisure qualifications.

Value-added per learner in classroom-based FE training (19-plus)

Value-added per learner in classroom-based training fell by 4% in 2022/23 and the provision mix for classroom-based training has become less valuable over time, with a fall of 25% since 2012/13.

• This can mostly be explained by a shift over time away from Full Level 2 qualifications towards other Level 2 qualifications (and to a lesser extent from Full Level 3 towards other Level 3) which typically have lower earnings returns.

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In 2022/23, apprenticeship achievers contributed 57% of the total value-added of the Apprenticeships and 19-plus FE system even though they accounted for only 17% of achiever numbers.

• This is because apprenticeships generally result in higher returns, higher employment and higher earnings than classroom-based qualifications at the same level (see the Apprenticeships and 19-plus Further Education Skills Index Methodology for details).

Contribution of apprenticeships to total value-added

Between 2012/13 and 2022/23 the contribution of apprenticeships towards the total value-added increased from 34% to 57%.

• The contribution of higher apprenticeships has gradually increased from 0% in 2012/13 to 23% in 2022/23.
• Meanwhile, the contribution of intermediate apprenticeships has fallen from a high of 27% in 2016/17 to 11% in 2022/23.

Contribution of classroom-based FE learning (19-plus) to total value-added

The fall in the contribution of classroom-based learning is mainly the result of a declining contribution from Full Level 2 qualifications.

• The contribution of Full Level 2 qualifications decreased from 34% in 2012/13 to 3% in 2022/23. However, this is partly due to a reclassification in 2016/17, which moved a substantial number of Full Level 2 achievers into the Other Level 2 category.
• Full Level 2 qualifications that were reclassified as Other Level 2 in 2016/17 are assigned the same value as current Full Level 2 qualifications (see the Apprenticeships and 19-plus Further Education Skills Index Methodology for details). These qualifications contributed 15% of total value-added in 2016/17 and 11% in 2022/23.
• The contribution of Below Level 2 qualifications has also fallen from 14% in 2012/13 to 11% in 2022/23.

Falling achiever numbers have been the key driver of the downward trend in the Index since 2012/13.

• In 2019/20 and 2020/21 COVID-19 restrictions caused disruption to exams and breaks in learning, leading to fewer achievements than would normally have been expected. See Further education and skills, Academic Year 2022/23.

Numbers of apprenticeship achievers

Between 2012/13 and 2016/17 the number of apprenticeship achievers was increasing steadily, before falling as a result of both reforms to the apprenticeship system and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• In 2022/23 the overall number of apprenticeship achievers increased by 18%, but this was still 36% lower than in 2012/13.
• The number of intermediate apprenticeship achievers fell each year between 2015/16 and 2021/22, but increased by 16% in 2022/23.
• The number of achievers of higher apprenticeships increased by 34% in 2022/23 and is around thirty times larger than in 2012/13.
• The duration of apprenticeships is also increasing, so there are fewer achievements in the short-term - see the Apprenticeships statistics for details.

Numbers of classroom-based FE achievers (19-plus)

The number of classroom-based FE achievers (19-plus) fell by 55% between 2012/13 and 2020/21, but has since increased slightly.

• In 2022/23 the overall number of classroom-based achievers increased by 5%, but this was still 53% lower than in 2012/13.
• The number of Full Level 2 achievers has declined by 97% since 2012/13 and, although it is partly due to reclassification with no impact on value-added estimates, overall this has been a key driver in the falling Skills Index for classroom-based learning.
• In 2022/23 the number of classroom-based achievers increased by 34,000 (5%). Within this, there was a larger 26,000 rise in the number of achievers whose highest qualification was Below Level 2 (who have the lowest returns), contributing to a fall in average value-added per classroom-based learner.

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